2024 Battleground State Polls

Pollbusters Weighted Battleground Polling Averages

Indexing Democrat Partisan Skews in 2024 Presidential Battleground Polls

Weighting the Last 5 Battleground Poll Averages by State

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  • Without weighting, a poll with half the sample size as the next poll is treated the same.
  • A N=400 sample size poll showing Harris +1 counts the same as a N=1000 sample size poll showing Trump +1.
  • The weighted average fixes this, applying greater impact to polls with larger sample sizes.
  • Why? It's to provide another way of assessing accuracy of polling indexes.

10/12 Update: President Trump leads every state except Pennsylvania and Nevada, which tracks 287 Electoral College Votes. The flip between weighted and unweighted is Wisconsin, which leans Harris in the unweighted average.

Changes since 10/7 Update: Wisconsin flipped to Trump, and Pennsylvania and Nevada flipped to Harris. Net Harris +15 Electoral College Vote shift.

Note: this is without factoring in skew values - the unskew increments are included in the tables for reference.


Unweighted Averages for Reference


Battleground States

See the averages of the last 5 polls and the built-in Democrat partisan sampling skews.


What is Skew/Unskew?

How to read:

  • Party Sample: Net R+ or D+ of a poll's sample
  • Partisan Skew: difference between Party Sample and the 2020 exit poll party ID
  • Simple Unskew: what would happen if 100% of Rs and Ds voted for their nominee and you unskewed the result.
  • Unskew Chart Line: where Trump would be without the Dem skew
  • Skew-Proof Chart Line: if Harris is below the Skew-Proof, she lags Trump without skew

This is not a true reweighted sample, it's just simple math. 100% of self-identified Rs and Ds won't vote for their nominee, but the skew metric and indicator lines on the charts visualize Dem bias in the polls.

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